tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216094732716939655.post5373054759030972116..comments2012-04-04T09:09:14.045-05:00Comments on NL Central Stage: Juan vs. MannyDavehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10535450896576751111noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216094732716939655.post-26921272458252445202009-05-08T17:04:00.000-05:002009-05-08T17:04:00.000-05:00http://www.truebluela.com/2009/5/8/869098/a-ration...http://www.truebluela.com/2009/5/8/869098/a-rational-look-at-the-impact-of<br /><br />Check out the link above; Brendan Scolari of True Blue L.A. wrote up a nice treatment of the situation, and he and Caleb are pretty much in agreement, it would seem. I agree with the numbers, but still think 1-3 wins is pretty significant. Regardless, even my gloomier take on the situation (as compared to Caleb and TBLA, anyway; there's many a Chicken Little out there calling for Dodger doom) doesn't make me think the Dodgers will lose the NL West without Manny. Of course, if they end up a game or two out of the playoffs, we'll be hearing about it for a while.Davehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10535450896576751111noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216094732716939655.post-51073069198539292472009-05-08T14:59:00.000-05:002009-05-08T14:59:00.000-05:00This is a little rough but:
Manny
Career WARP1: 8...This is a little rough but:<br /><br />Manny<br />Career WARP1: 86.3<br />G: 2130<br />Expected WARP1 for 50 G: 2.02<br /><br />Juan<br />Career WARP1: 23.0<br />G: 1310<br />Expected WARP1 for 50G: 0.87<br /><br />The Dodgers should expect to win one fewer game over that stretch.<br /><br />This is misleading of course because it is based on career totals and not current trends or run scoring rates or ballparks, etc. It's interesting to see though how difficult it is to add even a single win as an individual player.Calebhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00019456739071193918noreply@blogger.com