A Raise of the Glass to Nick Adenhart

2009: 6.0 IP, 7 H, 3 BB, 5 K, 1.667 WHIP, 0.00 ERA.

Nick Adenhart's career stats.

Godspeed, kid.

Houston Astros PWMBA: Hunter Pence

I meant to have most of these up before the season started but I got distracted battling a cyborg T-Rex using only a length of piano wire. Whether that is true or not I believe I am forgiven.

I mentioned Hunter Pence briefly in my Astros FA FA FA but I really see him as being the biggest question mark for a team that seems to be full of them. Hunter Pence has only two seasons in the majors and they are drastically different.

In his rookie year Hunter Pence posted a line of .322/.360/.539 and was third place in NL Rookie of the Year voting (behind Ryan "King of Awesome" Braun and Troy "Duke of Decent" Tulowitzki). His sophomore year saw his numbers drop across the board to a line of .269/.318/.466 and was third place in nothing.

What happened to cause such a dramatic drop in offensive stats? The biggest issue was that his BABIP in his rookie year was .378 (extraordinarily high) and in his sophomore year it predictably dropped (.303). He also played in more games and had significantly more ABs his second year (158 more) which when combined with such a large drop in BABIP will lead to a significant drop in rates.

So what to expect? It would be easy to say that his BABIP will probably come up a bit from the previous year (.303 is very low and well below league average), however it is almost universally accepted that batters control BABIP and do not regress to league average but instead will remain closer/regress to their individual BABIP. Since Pence only has two years of play it is hard to say what his individual BABIP should be expected to be.

I would expect it to remain very low for one important reason: Pence's GB/FB/LD percentages. In Pence's two years his GB/FB ratio was 1.55 and 1.50. It would be reasonable to expect him to have a similar ratio in 2009. Combine this with his LD percentages of 19.4% and 13.9% for his two years and it becomes all the more apparent that the BABIP of .378 was incredibly flukey but that the BABIP of .303 could have been significantly lower as well. "As a general formula, BABIP equals the percent of batted balls that are line drives (LD%) plus .120."

Is it possible for him to maintain this trend of constantly having a BABIP greater than expected from his LD%? Of course, and he wouldn't be the first person to do it year in and year out. Ichiro, for example, has shown an ability to outperform this expectation. It is important to note though that Ichiro's lowest LD% for a season was 18.4% and that he is maybe the best contact hitter in the league. In short: Hunter Pence is not Ichiro.

I would expect Hunter Pence to have a year on par with or worse than 2008. His BABIP will not continue to be so different from his already low LD%. I have no raw numbers to offer up as a prediction, but I will say that most projections see him doing better than last year. I am going against the grain on this one. He hits a high percentage of ground balls and teams will begin making adjustments making it harder for many of those to squeeze though to the outfield.

Sorry about the lack of graphs. I was making one but got interrupted by a ethereal velociraptor.

R.J. Swindled

One of the more intriguing moves in the NL Central this offseason was the Brewers' signing of LOOGY-waiting-to-happen R.J. Swindle. Not only has Swindle absolutely dominated in the high minors (15.53 K/9, 1.41 BB/9 in his first three years of minor league work), but he throws a 55mph (!) curve that breaks down and away from lefties. Dude. Throws. An. Eephus.

Both Caleb and I love the eephus (and the knuckleball, for that matter). Needless to say, when the Brewers signed Swindle, we were both excited; Caleb because his team had landed a reliever with an eephus-in-everything-but-name and ridiculous minor league splits, and me because I'd get to watch Swindle pitch often in 2009 (although I knew I'd probably be reduced to tears the first time that sweeping, 50's curve came at Kosuke Fukudome).

And yet, despite his Spring Training success (4 G, 7 IP, 1 ER, 1.80 ERA, .167 BAA), and despite the fact that the Brewers' big-ticket reliever, Trevor Hoffman, will begin the season on the DL, and despite the fact that the Brew Crew's bullpen has only one lefty (Mitch Stetter), R.J. Swindle will begin the 2009 season in AAA.

I'll tell you what, Milwaukee: how about you ship Swindle south to Chicago?

The Curious Case of April the First

In honor of April Fools Day, here's a blast from the sportswriting past: perhaps the most famous sports hoax of all time, "The Curious Case of Sidd Finch" by George Plimpton of Sports Illustrated. "The Curious Case" is more than just an April 1st gag, though; it's a truly inspired little piece of baseball fiction that any fan should read at least once.

For those of you already familiar with Sidd Finch, check out "The Curious Case of Neftali Perez" for a contemporary version of Plimpton's classic with a Texas Rangers twist.

Now if you'll excuse me, the first is almost over and I only have two-and-a-half more hours to convince Caleb that he died in a car wreck on the way to work and is currently existing in a hellish state of limbo from which even death itself is no longer an escape option.

Cincinnati Reds PWMBA: Johnny Cueto

Johnny Cueto is a hot shot prospect (age 23) that along with Bailey and Volquez gives the Reds the best young pitching staff in the majors. They are a group of quality pitchers that could carry the Reds to a winning season this year in addition to years to come. What I am doing right now is building them up while everyone wonders how long until I mention that they pitch on a team managed by Dusty Baker and that if he doesn't personally stab each one in the throwing arm it will be a miracle.

Cueto has shown some signs of being excellent with a 90+ mph fastball in addition to a good slider and changeup. He makes good use of all three pitches and has impressive strikeout numbers in every phase of his career.

It is Cueto's other numbers that interest me though and more specifically his major vs. minor league numbers. Cueto threw 174 innings last year (his rookie season) and has 348.1 career minor league innings pitched. His minor league numbers are impressive (particularly his AA numbers of 11.36 K/9 and 1.03 WHIP) but his major league numbers last year show some stark differences.

The following graph compares several rate statistics for Cueto's minor league career vs. his 2008 rookie campaign.

The numbers that stick out most are his HR/9 rate and his BB/9 rate. Cueto's minor league HR/9 rate was 0.62, which is excellent. In the majors last year Cueto gave up 1.5 HR/9. A jump is to be expected when moving up to face better competition but such a significant increase is a bit alarming. It could partially be attributed to park factor; the Great American Ballpark ranked fourth last year in HR. It is important to realize however that his HR/9 in away games last year was still above league average.

It would be one thing to say that Cueto was unlucky last year however his BABIP was only 0.309, barely above league average. It is reasonable to expect his walk totals to come down as he develops his pitches more. He will have to find a way to give up fewer home runs in order to find success in this league. If he struggles early I would not be surprised to see the Reds send him down to AAA to get some more development seeing as how he only has 22.0 IP at that level. It's hard to say what to expect though; whether it's the dominant AA pitcher or the adequate major leaguer. Projections almost universally have him doing roughly the same as he did last year. While his performance was acceptable, it is not the kind of performance that Baker can be expected to ruin.

Chicago Cubs PWMBA: Kosuke Fukudome

The baseball season is coming. Professionals are playing the sport as we speak (or write) in beautiful cities as well as Kissimmee. As such, it's time to start looking ahead at some things to expect.

Or what we can't expect or predict in any reliable way as the case may be. In this series I am identifying a player on each team in the NL Central that is a question mark in terms of what to expect from them heading into the season. Some may be because of small sample sizes or interesting trends, other may be a jerk who plays for the Cubs.

Chicago Cubs Player Who Might Be Anything: Kosuke Fukudome

Fukudome only has one year of MLB statistics so it is difficult to determine how well it projects to his future production in the majors. He started off hot but definitely cooled down the stretch. He seemed to make some adjustments well but may have hit a slump toward the end of the season. It is also possible that pitchers have figured him out and he has not been able to adjust to them. The graph below shows his stats over the course of the season.

While there is a trend downward it is unclear if it is a cause for concern or performance below true capabilities. His final season stats were .257/.359/.379, good for a EqA of .260. Exactly league average is not the production the Cubs invested in and not the production needed from a corner outfielder.

The upcoming season will be interesting as it may determine how much money and time the Cubs will invest in Fukudome. If he performs well then he may be a long term member of the club. If not, then he may be looking for a new job where he can try to overcome a legacy as overhyped.

I admittedly have no knowledge of Fukudome's stats from Japan and cannot imagine how they would translate. If there are projections that compare them to minor league statistics I am unaware of them however I think the main issues to keep in mind are that Fukudome is only 32 and he has shown signs of being able to make adjustments and show patience at the plate.

Fukudome's season was comprised of a Jekyll first half and a Hyde second half. Somewhere towards the middle is where I would expect him to perform this upcoming season and in the long run of his career. Looking at his season stats, he was hitting .279/.383/.408 at the All-Star break. This is actually fairly close to most projections I have seen and seems to be a reasonable level to expect from him. Quite frankly, if he performs at any level below that and the Cubs can and should find a replacement for far less money and equal or greater production.

An Open Letter to Everyone Who Still Thinks Francisco Rodriguez Was MLB's Premier Closer in 2008

Dear Everyone Who Still Thinks Francisco Rodriguez Was MLB's Premier Closer in 2008,

I really hate to tell you this. I know you're enamored with that saves record. "62," you find yourself mumbling for no apparent reason, your suddenly awestruck eyes trained on the horizon. "62!" Yes, Francisco Rodriguez set the single-season record for saves last year. And yes, he pitched well while doing so. But he wasn't the best closer in baseball last year. He wasn't even the best closer in the American League, and he may not have been in the top five in the junior circuit, for that matter!

I know you're upset right now. I know you think I'm crazy. But bear with me here: let's break K-Rod's year down together, starting with that "62" in the saves column. The fact of the matter is that the saves record was largely due to good fortune (from a closer's perspective). The Angels didn't score an awful lot of runs last year (765 RS, good for 10th among 14 AL teams), but had solid pitching (697 RA, 5th in the AL), which resulted in a lot of close games, which in turn resulted in a lot of save opportunities for Rodriguez: 69, to be exact (itself a big league a record). K-Rod converted 62 of those save opportunities and blew 7 saves for an 89.8% conversion rate. Not bad, but not automatic.

"But wait," you may say, "nobody except Brad Lidge was automatic in 2008!" Fair enough. So what about the rest of the stats? And what about these so-called "superior" closers (at least in 2008) I've made veiled reference to already?

I'm so glad you [may or may not have] asked! As I hope this list will indicate, K-Rod did have a good year, but if you ignore the number "62" for a moment, he's nowhere close to the guys at the top of the 2008 heap (particularly Mo, who had an obscenely good 2008 to almost no fanfare).

K-Rod:
76 G, 69 GF, 62/69 S/Opp, 68.3 IP, 2.24 ERA, 198 ERA+, 77 K, 34 BB, 1.288 WHIP

Mariano Rivera:
64 G, 60 GF, 39/40 S/Opp, 70.7 IP, 1.40 ERA, 317 ERA+ (!), 77K, 6 BB (!!), 0.665 WHIP (!!!)

Joakim Soria:
63 G, 57 GF, 42/45 S/Opp, 67.3 IP, 1.60 ERA, 266 ERA+, 66 K, 19 BB, 0.861 WHIP

Joe Nathan:
68 G, 57 GF, 39/45 S/Opp, 67.7 IP, 1.33 ERA, 305 ERA+, 74 K, 18 BB, 0.901 WHIP

Brad Lidge:
72 G, 61 GF, 41/41 S/Opp, 69.3 IP, 1.95 ERA, 225 ERA+, 92 K, 35 BB, 1.226 WHIP

Jonathan Papelbon:
67 G, 62 GF, 41/46 S/Opp, 69.3 IP, 2.34 ERA, 198 ERA+, 77K, 8 BB (!), 0.952 WHIP

So we have six closers, all of whom pitched a very similar number of innings across a similar number of games, of which they finished a similar number and with roughly the same success rate in save situations (ignoring Lidge and Rivera, who combined to blow one save all year). But K-Rod finished with 23 more save opportunities than any other man on this list. TWENTY-THREE! I should hope he'd save more games than the others!

What's more impressive than K-Rod's individual "62," I should think, is that the Angels even gave him 62 chances, let alone 69! 69: that's roughly 43% of all Angels games in 2008. Not 43% of all Angels wins; 43% of all the games that the Los Angeheim Angels of Anangeles stepped onto the field for during the regular season. 43% of those games ended with K-Rod stepping onto the rubber in a situation that has been arbitrarily determined to be worthy of an "S" in the box score.

Now, as we shift away from the saves column, K-Rod looks a lot less impressive. Even Lidge, "Mr. Automatic" in 2008, pales a bit in comparison to Rivera, Soria, Nathan, and Papelbon. Rodriguez's K/BB ratio is worse (often much worse) than everyone else on the list, as is his WHIP. His ERA+ is at the bottom of the heap, as well. And unlike Lidge, he didn't make up for high walk totals with absolutely ridiculous K-rates (though he did strike out a lot of hitters--let's be fair, here), or for his high WHIP with ridiculously "clutch" save rates (he saved games at just under a 90% rate, which is good but not Lidgean or Riveran--and Rivera combined his 97.5% success rate with an absurd 0.665 WHIP!).

K-Rod was good in 2008. But he wasn't anywhere near as dominant as Rivera, Soria, Nathan, Papelbon, or Lidge. And I only chose the easy cases; a case could be made that Bobby Jenks (57 G, 52 GF, 30/34 S/Opp, 61.7 IP, 2.63 ERA, 174 ERA+, 38 K, 17 BB, 1.103 WHIP) was at or above Rodriguez-level last year as well, for example.

Listen: I know you like the saves record. And I'll admit that it's pretty cool. It's a Major League record, after all, and who among us didn't dream of breaking records on our way to first-ballot HOF induction while slapping pine cones with sticks in our backyards? Hell, I'd be buying rounds if I broke the single-inning record for balks. But dominance in a closer is about more than the saves column. Joakim Soria in '08? Dominant. Mariano Rivera basically every year ever? Dominant. But I'm afraid that, good though he is, Francisco Rodriguez is not now, was not in 2008, and probably will not ever be at Mariano Rivera's level.

I hope we can still be friends.

Love,
Dave

P.S. - My sister thinks you're cute.

Sorry Dave

but this is absolutely hilarious

Credit goes to Deadspin although the photo is apparently from the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

The Hall of Pretty Good

Historically, the MLB Hall of Fame has been much better than the other major sports in keeping the elite in, and the mere good out. They still are, that doesn't change with this year's most recent elections, nor did it change in the past couple years when they inducted Goose Gossage and Bruce Sutter, respectively.

That's not to say they weren't good players.

The same goes for one of this year's inductees - who everyone pretty much knew would finally get in this year, his 15th and final year on the ballot - Jim Rice. Now, how his stats actually improved over the past 12 months in order for him to gain induction, I'll never know. But apparently, what was it, 14 additional voters said "Eh, good enough!" The whole thing is asinine. Jim Rice was a fine player, a great hitter for several years there, a threat in the middle of that Boston lineup. But one of the elite to ever play the game? Surely you jest. I mean, where's Joe Carter if you're going to just put in good hitting outfielders? And why has Dale Murphy been plodding around the 10-15% plateau ever since he's been on the ballot? I'm not saying he deserves to be in, but where's the love? Here, check the stats if you don't believe me:

Jim Rice: http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/riceji01.shtml
Dale Murphy: http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/murphda05.shtml

For his career, Rice batted .298 (.352 OBP) with 382 home runs, 1451 RBIs, and 2452 hits. Nothing to sneeze at. He also had 1 MVP and zero Gold Glove Awards.

Murphy batted .265 (.346 OBP) with 398 home runs, 1266 RBIs, and 2111 hits. Rice's numbers do look slighly better here (slightly), but Dale also had 2 MVPs to Rice's one, and topped it off with 5 Gold Gloves. Not to mention he played for the shitty, shitty Braves during the 80s so that has to account for a big chunk of those RBIs.

For my money, there were two guys more deserving of going into the Hall over Rice - and no, one of them isn't Dale Murphy. The first is The Hawk, the bane of my youth during his time with Cubs, Andre Dawson.

Dawson will get in, if history is any judge, but it's a crime he hasn't been inducted sooner. Dawson's numbers look like this: .279 batting average, .323 OBP, 438 home runs, 1591 RBIs, 2774 hits, 1 MVP, a Rookie of the Year Award, and 8 Gold Gloves. And I'm not going back to check the numbers but I know that motherfucker stole more than a few bases as well and he had a GUN in RF.

The other guy who should have gone in long ago is Bert Blyleven. How this guy has floated under the radar this long is just a travesty. His numbers just speak for themselves:

287 Wins
242 Complete Games. 242!
60 Shutouts
3.31 ERA
3701 Ks - which is 5th all time

Poor guy. You'd think if he'd have hung around for a couple more crappy seasons just to get #300 he'd be a shoo-in.

Onto the other half of my rant. Whoever didn't fucking vote for Rickey Henderson needs to be stripped of their voting priveleges. He was on, like, 94.7% of the ballot. Over 5% of the writers said, nope, he just wasn't good enough. Give me a fucking break. And while I'm on the subject, what's the deal with this 15 year bullshit? A player does not get any better after he's retired. Sorry. He just doesn't. Generally they get worse as people eclipse their records (Sorry, Lee Smith). You're either a first ballot Hall of Famer or you're not fucking good enough. End of story. Not to mention the whole self-promoting and begging for votes is just embarassing. Goose was practically crying in interviews the year Sutter got in and he didn't. It's pathetic.

And two people voted for Jay Bell! Jay Fucking Bell! And someone wanted to see a bronze bust of JESSE OROSCO! Someone tell these writers that you don't have to vote for 10 guys. Vote for none if you don't think any are deserving, but don't be ridiculous. I would like to track down the guys who voted for Jay Bell and Jesse Orosco and have them explain to me, in great detail, why in God's name either is deserving of the greatest honor a baseball player can achieve. Then I would like to punch them in the neck.

That's enough for this week. Glad to be on board!

Greg Maddux to Announce Plans to Enter Baseball Hall of Fame Five Years from Monday

It should come as no surprise to anyone who has been following the baseball offseason this year that Greg Maddux plans to announce his retirement on Monday. Maddux played for 23 seasons for the Chicago Cubs, Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers, and San Diego Padres. He developed into the best pitcher in the National League while with the Cubs, who then infamously allowed Maddux to walk following his first Cy Young year (1992). He would go on to win three more consecutive Cy Young Awards with the Braves (four straight, all told), where he spent his "glory years" anchoring a Braves rotation of himself, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, and Steve Avery that propelled Atlanta to something like 37 consecutive division titles, before eventually returning to Chicago in 2004 for a farewell tour. After two-and-a-half more years with the Cubs, Maddux split time with the Dodgers and Padres before deciding it was time to move on.

Although I have no doubt that the pundits will spend the next century or so debating whether it was Greg Maddux or Roger Clemens who was the greatest pitcher of their generation, one thing that isn't debatable is Maddux's Hall of Fame candidacy. Greg Maddux will enter Cooperstown in five years, and when he does, he may well do so with the highest percentage of the vote in the Hall of Fame's history (Tom Seaver's 98.8% is the current record).

Many people will write many tributes to Maddux in the coming days, and so I will not belabor this post. But although my team was shortsighted enough to let a great ballplayer (and character) like Maddux walk away, there will always be a special place in the hearts of many, many Cubs fans (this one included) for the Mad Dog.

Godspeed, Mr. Maddux.