2008 Positional MVP Picks: Third Basemen

The corners of the diamond tend to be where the top hitters lurk, and the hot corner was no exception to this rule in 2008. Although I found that narrowing down the third basemen list to seven names was as simple, if not simpler, than the process was for second basemen, determining actual rankings once I was down to seven finalists was extremely difficult. But difficult or no, I plugged away at the numbers until I was satisfied with my rankings and ready to bring you Installment #5: Third Basemen.

In 2008, there were basically three classes of third basemen: the top three, numbers four through seven, and everyone else. But I’ve tried to keep my positional MVP picks at five players, which meant two players had to be dropped from the short list.

The second honorable mention (7th place) was easy enough: Jorge Cantu, despite being a solid hitter (.277/.327/.481 with 29 HR for an OPS+ of 110), was a terrible fielder in ’08 (16th among twenty qualified ML third basemen in range factor [RF] at 2.51, dead last in zone rating [ZR] at .720, and 18th in revised zone rating [RZR] at .662). True, at least two of the third basemen who made the top five are below-average to terrible fielders, but they are also vastly superior hitters to Cantu.

The first honorable mention was much more difficult to determine. Troy Glaus had an outstanding season in his new St. Louis uniform, putting together a line of .270/.372/.483 with 27 homers and an OPS of .855 (OPS+ 124), and his VORP of 35.2 actually led my pick for #5 by .4 runs (though Glaus was nearly ten runs behind 4th place). But Glaus wasn’t as good with his glove as the first man on my list, and so will have to settle for an honorable mention.

As for the players who made the list, I’m actually very confident in my #1 pick, but there are legitimate arguments, with which I will engage later, against both #1 and #2 being ranked as high as they are. #2 and #3 were almost too close to call, #4 was all alone (he has no business being rated either higher or lower than fourth), and #5 is hanging on to his spot by the skin of his teeth (or, perhaps more appropriately, by the leather of his glove).

So without further qualification, I present the top five MLB third basemen of 2008:

5.) Evan Longoria started the year in the minors, landed on the DL with a broken wrist, and only played in 122 games, but still managed to put together an excellent season. Longoria’s first-year resume includes a batting line of .272/.343/.531, an OPS of .874 (OPS+ 125), 27 HR, .302 EqA, 20 total win shares (including 4.8 fielding win shares, higher than any other Major League third baseman), and a VORP of 34.8. Among qualifyied third basemen, he tied for sixth in the majors with a 2.72 RF, was seventh with a .797 ZR, and fourth with a .731 RZR.

Longoria should be the runaway winner of the American League Rookie of the Year award, particularly since he was such an important part of the Rays’ division title (and end-of-season award voters love playoff berths!). And although I think playoff berths are overrated with regards to individual awards (and am glad that, traditionally, the RotY has been much less linked to pennants than the MVP has), I use the word “should” with regards to Longoria’s expected RotY for two reasons: one, because I’m fairly certain that he will win the award, and two, because I believe he deserves it.

Longoria’s partial season was not strong enough for him to make it any higher than fifth on this list, but he is only 23 years old; give him another (hopefully full) season or two in the bigs, and he’ll be significantly higher on the short list of premier third basemen.

4.) Aramis Ramirez may be a statue at third, but my God can he ever crush a ball, and now that he’s taking more walks, Ramirez has become even more dangerous at the plate. Aramis’s 2008 stats include a batting line of .289/.380/.518, an OPS of .898 (OPS+ 128), 27 HR, a .297 EqA, 25 total win shares, and a VORP of 44.7 (solidly ahead of Glaus and Longoria, but nowhere near the top three).

Defensively, Ramirez is significantly worse at third than Longoria. His 2.16 RF was easily the lowest among qualified third basemen, and his .751 ZR and .659 RZR were 17th and 19th, respectively. But because offense is so much more important than defense, particularly at the corners, Ramirez gets the nod at #4.

There is no reason in heaven or on earth, by the way, that Aramis Ramirez should have won the NL Hank Aaron Award (see my previous post for a more detailed explanation), nor is there any reason for him to move into the top three on this list. But there is also no reason why Ramirez should be anything lower than #4.

3.) David Wright regressed slightly from his 2007 numbers, but still put together a monster year in ’08. Wright hit .302/.390/.534 with 33 HR for an OPS of .924 (OPS+ 141), an EqA of .319, 29 total win shares (tops among third basemen), and a VORP of 66.2.

And unlike Ramirez, Wright is a good fielder. Although his RF of 2.51 and ZR of .765 (both 15th among qualified third basemen) are hardly impressive, his RZR of .714 was good for 6th in the majors (and second only to Longoria among third basemen on this list).

Had Wright put up his 2007 numbers this year, he would easily have overtaken the next man on my list. Even in 2008, one could argue that Wright is worthy of the #2 spot. But in my estimation, Wright falls just short of the top two this year.

2.) Alex Rodriguez was once again the most valuable American League third baseman in 2008, though this year he’ll have to settle for second place on the overall list. Rodriguez had a bit of a down year in ’08 (which, in mere mortal terms, means “an amazing year”) thanks to a stint on the DL that limited him to 138 games, but his numbers were still obscene: .302/.392/.573 with 35 HR, a .965 OPS (OPS+ 150), .323 EqA, 25 total win shares, and a VORP of 65.6.

A-Rod was respectable in the field, beating out Wright with a 2.59 RF and .786 ZR, but lagging behind the Mets third baseman with a .703 RZR. Of course, defense is not and has never been the reason that Rodriguez is one of the most valuable players in all of baseball, let alone at his own position.

Which brings me to a topic that, surprisingly, I haven’t seen many writers address: Alex Rodriguez is a legitimate MVP candidate. In a year in which the Yankees were devastated by injuries to catcher Jorge Posada, pitcher Chien-Ming Wang, and outfielder Hideki Matsui, and disappointed by serious regressions from their young talent (Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera) as well as their veterans (Derek Jeter), A-Rod led the American League in VORP and SLG, was second in EqA and OPS (and OPS+), third in HR, and top five in a slew of other offensive categories, all while keeping the Yankees competitive in arguably the toughest division in baseball (it’s easy to forget that the Yankees would have won the AL Central or the NL West, and been only one game out in the NL Wild Card despite playing so many games against the Rays, Red Sox, and Blue Jays). In fact, if I had a vote, I’d almost certainly cast it for A-Rod this year.

As for this list, the A-Rod vs. Wright debate comes down to qualitative vs. quantitative statistics. Wright played in 160 games; A-rod played in 138. Wright’s countable statistics (VORP and win shares, for example—though notably, not HR) were higher than Rodriguez’s in 2008. But A-Rod’s averages (EqA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and OPS+) were all higher than Wright’s.

I chose to go with qualitative statistics, but the choice is certainly arguable, particularly within an MVP-type context; after all, one might argue, isn’t the player who plays more games, even at a lower level, likely to be more valuable to a team? The answer is almost certainly “yes,” and A-Rod’s and Wright’s VORPs support such an answer. But because Wright was unable to convincingly pull away from A-Rod despite 22 extra games (Wright’s VORP was only .6 runs higher than Rodriguez’s), I went with the better player over fewer games.

1.) Yes, he cooled off after the All-Star break. Yes, he played in only 128 games due to a lingering thigh injury. But Chipper Jones was the most valuable third baseman in the Major Leagues in 2008. The Braves third baseman hit .364/.470(tops in the majors)/.574 for an OPS of 1.144 (OPS+ 174) with 22 HR, a .362 EqA (second only to Pujols), 24 total win shares, and a VORP of 75.4 (easily tops at third base, and third overall in the majors).

Jones isn’t a terrible fielder (his 2.73 RF and .820 ZR were fifth and second in the majors, respectively, though his .695 RZR—14th among qualified third basemen—tells a different story), but with the year he had at the plate in 2008, he could have trotted to the hot corner with a cinderblock strapped to his left hand and still been a fantastic everyday third baseman.

Like with A-Rod, the fact that Jones didn’t play everyday is really the only strong argument against him at #1. But whereas such an argument could potentially unseat Rodriguez from the #2 spot, it doesn’t work as well against Jones. Jones outperformed Wright so dramatically in qualitative statistics like EqA (.362 to .319), BA/OBP/SLG (.364/.470/.574 to .302/.390/.534), and OPS+ (174 to 141), as well as in arguably the best quantitative offensive statistic for comparisons of players within the same year/league/position (VORP, 75.4 to 66.2) despite playing in 32 (!) fewer games, that losing out to Wright in home runs (22 to 33) and total win shares (24 to 29) does little to refute Jones’s claim to the #1 spot.

Chipper Jones won’t sniff the NL MVP award (Pujols or, God forbid, Ryan Howard has that trophy locked down), but despite playing in only 128 games, he was far and away the best (and most valuable) third baseman of 2008.

2008 Positional MVP Picks: Second Basemen

For this round of positional MVP picks, we move from a traditional power position (first base) to a position where offensive production was long considered a bonus rather than a primary responsibility. Although the days of second basemen being almost exclusively glove men are decades past, there are still far fewer sluggers up the middle of the diamond than at the corners, which made writing Installment #4: Second Basemen more of a “balancing act” than previous positional MVP lists.

Put simply, choosing which metrics to apply to second basemen to determine their relative worth was far more difficult than the “offense is everything” approach I took for first basemen. Middle infielders may be expected to contribute more offensively now than they were forty years ago, but they still have to be strong defensively, so simply scanning the offensive leaderboards won’t tell the whole story of a second baseman’s season. Fortunately for me, there are far fewer top-tier second basemen (both offensively and defensively) in the major leagues than there are first basemen, so the need to account for defense didn’t result in a need to spend an absurd amount of time poring over extra statistics.

In fact, narrowing the field to seven or eight players was actually quite easy, and once I started crunching numbers, the top five pulled away from the rest of the pack pretty convincingly. An honorable mention goes to Mark DeRosa, who had an excellent year at the plate (.285/.376/.481 with 21 HR), and kept pace with numbers four and five on this list offensively, but whose defense (though solid) and VORP (35.7, 6.8 runs lower than my pick for #5 and 15 runs lower than #4) kept him from cracking the top five.

The gap between DeRosa and the rest of the field this year is, in my mind at least, significant, particularly since I still privilege offensive statistics over defensive statistics at second base—both due to their higher reliability and due to my belief that offense, even for middle infielders, is more important to winning ballgames than defense.

Here’s the top five:

5.) Dan Uggla’s batting eye is starting to catch up with his power stroke, resulting in 2008 being Uggla’s strongest season in the big leagues. The Florida second baseman hit .260/.360/.514 for an OPS of .874 (OPS+ 128) with 32 HR, a .296 EqA, 25 win shares, and a VORP of 42.5. He set career marks in OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, HR, and BB despite playing in fewer games (146) than in either of his previous two seasons.

Uggla may not have the best glove at second, but he’s not a liability, and he certainly isn’t as bad as he looked during the All-Star Game. Uggla’s range factor (RF) for 2008 was 4.86 (well behind the top glove men, but not exactly terrible), and although his zone rating (ZR) was a bit low at .803, his revised zone rating (RZR), which takes into account plays made outside a fielder’s “zone,” was a slightly more impressive .812, good enough for 11th among qualified fielders.

Uggla is in the Marlins lineup (and on this list) for his bat rather than his glove, and his mediocre fielding marks don’t undo the value he adds at the plate. However, they do prevent him from climbing higher than 5th on this list.

4.) Brian Roberts may not have anything even approaching Uggla’s power, but he’s a better fielder and an excellent top-of-the-order hitter. Roberts’s 2008 line was .296/.378/.450 with 9 HR and 51 doubles for an OPS of .828 (OPS+ 117), a .295 EqA, 21 win shares, and a VORP of 50.6.

The Orioles second baseman also stole 40 bags against only 10 CS for an 80.0% success rate (as opposed to Uggla, who was 5-for-10 in 2008 and is 13-for-25 over the course of his three year career), which was a major factor in pushing Roberts’s VORP 8.1 runs higher than Uggla’s.

Defensively, Roberts really pulls away from Uggla. Roberts’s 4.98 RF, .829 ZR, and .829 RZR were all higher than Uggla’s marks, and, coupled with his superior baserunning skills, made the Orioles second baseman the more valuable player in 2008.

3.) Ian Kinsler continued to develop into one of the top second basemen in the big leagues in 2008, hitting .319/.375/.517 with 18 HR, an .892 OPS (134 OPS+), a .311 EqA, 26 win shares, and a VORP of 54.6. Like Roberts, Kinsler can run, swiping 26 bases with only 2 CS for a 92.9% success rate, and Kinsler has significantly more power than the Orioles second baseman.

What makes Kinsler’s offensive numbers even more impressive is that he ended the 2008 season on the disabled list and only played in 121 games. Had he played in 20-30 more games, he may have overtaken one or both of the players ahead of him on this list, at least offensively.

On the defensive side, Kinsler is a bit more difficult to evaluate. His 5.77 RF led all Major League second basemen, but his .819 ZR and .801 RZR are much less impressive. Kinsler is so good at the plate that he’s an easy choice for #3 on this list, but his defensive shortcomings and partial 2008 season prevent him from climbing any higher.

2.) Dustin Pedroia has a very legitimate shot at the 2008 AL MVP (in fact, he’s my pick to win the award), and although I don’t believe he should be this year’s MVP, he certainly put up some impressive numbers: .326/.376/.493 with 17 HR, 54 2B, an .869 OPS (122 OPS+), a .298 EqA, 26 win shares, a VORP of 62.3 (tops among Major League second basemen), and 20 SB in 21 attempts (a 95.2% success rate).

Pedroia was solid defensively, as well. His 4.75 range factor is unimpressive, but he did a good job at handling what he got to, posting an .854 ZR and .829 RZR, and although I think it is a potentially misleading statistic, it is worth noting that Pedroia was second at his position (behind only Mark Ellis) in FPCT at .992.

My problem with Pedroia’s likely AL MVP award is not that I don’t believe he is a deserving MVP, but that, like Cliff Lee’s all-but-inevitable AL CYA, Pedroia’s award will probably be for the wrong reason (wins for Lee, and Boston’s playoff berth for Pedroia). Pedroia was the most valuable American League second baseman in 2008, and he was the most valuable player on the Red Sox this season, but the AL MVP should be about more than just the most valuable player on a playoff-bound team. However, Pedroia is not a bad pick for the award, so I won’t be terribly upset if he wins it, though I would cast my all-too-hypothetical vote elsewhere.

1.) Chase Utley once again put together a monster year, particularly for a middle infielder, in 2008, posting a line of .292/.380/.535 with 33 home runs (and 78 total XBH!) for an OPS of .915 (OPS+ 135), an EqA of .308, 30 total win shares, and a VORP of 62.2 (only 0.1 behind Pedroia’s). Utley, like Pedroia, was efficient on the basepaths, racking up 14 SB against only 2 CS (87.5%)—not an overwhelming total, but Utley is a 3-hole hitter rather than a leadoff man like Pedroia and Roberts, and he bats in front of Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell, both of whom rack up a lot of XBHs.

Not only did Utley have a better (or at the very least, more multi-dimensional) offensive year than any other second baseman on this list, he had a better defensive year as well. His 5.18 RF was fourth among all second basemen, and his ZR of .844 and RZR of .839 were third and fourth, respectively. Of the other second basemen on this list, only Uggla had a better RF (5.77 to 5.18), and only Pedroia a better ZR (.854 to .844); Utley’s RZR was tops among my top five.

Put simply, no other second baseman excelled at so many facets of the game as Utley did in 2008 (and 2007, and 2006, and 2005…). He hit for power, he got on base, he ran the bases well, and he fielded his position superbly, and was an easy choice for the top second baseman of 2008.

2008 Positional MVP Picks: First Basemen

Yes, it’s been a little while since I pitched my picks for the top catchers of 2008, but unfortunately real-world responsibilities were kicking my butt this past week. But it’s the weekend, and that means it’s time for…

Installment #3: First Basemen

On the one hand, picking the top first basemen in a given year is remarkably easy: all a fan really needs to do is pore over the offensive statistics of his or her choice and choose the top offensive performers by those metrics. Unless a first baseman has the defensive capabilities of a potted plant, his value to his team is almost entirely dependent on his bat.

But on the other hand, narrowing down fifteen or so first basemen who can absolutely mash into a top-whatever list is very, very difficult, even ignoring all those pesky fielding statistics. And that is why, even though I’ve cheated a bit and kept seven players on my top five list, there are still a lot of extremely good players missing from my list. Among the honorable mentions: Prince Fielder, Carlos Delgado, Ryan Howard, and Carlos Pena. All had excellent offensive years, but at a position where excellent offensive years are the norm rather than the exception, and are therefore fourth-tier candidates.

Those who did make the list fall into a few categories. My pick for the #1 spot is, in my opinion, all alone at the top not only at his position, but for the 2008 MLB MVP (if such an award existed). Numbers two through four are second-tier positional MVP picks, and although I am confident in my decisions regarding their overall rankings, I can imagine some pretty reasonable arguments for shuffling the order around a bit as long as none of these players drops below #4. Numbers five through seven are almost too close to call (and third-tier picks this season). So what do I mean by all this “tier” nonsense? Quite simply, unless those of you who disagree with my rankings can give me some very compelling evidence, I’m unlikely to buy into a counterargument that argues for re-rankings which move players from one tier to another.

That said, on with the list!

7.) Miguel Cabrera’s excellent year went largely unnoticed amidst Detroit’s abysmal regular season showing. In his first year as a regular first baseman, Cabrera hit .292/.349/.537 with 37 HR, an OPS of .886 (OPS+ 130), a .298 EqA, 21 win shares, and a VORP of 46.8.

His numbers aren’t mind-blowing for a first baseman, but they are very, very good, and Cabrera could legitimately be ranked as high as fifth on this list despite having regressed from his ridiculous ’05-’07 numbers in 2008. In fact, I think any order for #’s 5-7 is defensible, though any higher or lower for these three players would be a much harder sell to me.

6.) Adrian Gonzalez once again put together a tremendous year without generating any media buzz outside of San Diego (where I can only hope he gets a lot of well-deserved love). His 2008 line? .279/.361/.510 with 36 homers, an .871 OPS (OPS+ 138), .309 EqA, 26 win shares, and a VORP of 43.6. The fact that he played half his games in Petco “Pitcher’s Paradise” Park (.796 park factor in 2008, by far the lowest in the majors), and all his games with little protection from a San Diego lineup ranked at or near the bottom of the league in every offensive category, makes Gonzalez’s numbers, particularly his non-adjusted stats like HR, OBP, SLG, etc., even more impressive.

Like Cabrera, Adrian Gonzalez suffered on a last place team, but the Padres were significantly worse than the Tigers this year, rendering Gonzalez all but invisible even to some very knowledgeable baseball fans (my roommate, for example, responded “Who?” when I told him Adrian Gonzalez was my pick for #6 on this list). But over the last three seasons, Gonzalez has proven that he should be anything but anonymous, and 2008 was his career year. Still, I don't buy any argument for Gonzalez that places him higher than fifth, as the top four players on this list put together ridiculous 2008 campaigns.

5.) Justin Morneau was nearly back to his ’06 form in 2008. His .300/.374/.499 line was good for an OPS of .873 (OPS+ 137), to which the Twins first baseman added 23 HR, a .308 EqA, 29 win shares, and a VORP of 45.5. And, like Gonzalez, Morneau put up these numbers in a pitcher’s park (the Metrodome’s .887 park factor was third lowest in the bigs this year), though he did so with a better supporting offensive cast.

Along with teammate Joe Mauer, Morneau is one of many MVP candidates in a wide open field, but his candidacy is, in my mind at least, far less defensible than Mauer’s. For one thing, Morneau’s offensive numbers are, at best, only slightly better than Mauer’s. Mauer’s OPS+ was three points lower than Morneau’s (137 to 134), and Morneau hit 14 more HR and 30 more XBH (74 to 44), but the Twins catcher posted a higher EqA (.316 to .308), more win shares (31 to 29), and, most tellingly, a significantly higher VORP (55.5 to 45.5). Furthermore, Mauer plays a skill position, which explains the dramatic difference in VORP despite both players’ similar offensive numbers. Further weakening Morneau’s candidacy (at least, in the parallel universe in which I pick baseball’s end-of-season award winners) is the fact that there is an AL first baseman ahead of him on this list.

But despite the fact that he shouldn’t (and probably won’t) win his second AL MVP award this year, Morneau was one of the best offensive first basemen of 2008, which is high praise at such a competitive position.

4.) Kevin Youkilis has long been a favorite of sabermetricians, but in 2008, the Greek God of Walks put up numbers that anyone can love. Youkilis hit .312/.390/.569 with a career high 29 HR, an OPS of .959 (OPS+ 143), a .313 EqA, 29 win shares, and a VORP of 55.8. Although his walk totals were down in 2008, his power numbers were way up (he eclipsed his previous career bests in home runs and slugging by 13 and .116, respectively), and he hit 30 points higher than his career best to keep his OBP from dropping a single point between ’07 and ’08.

Youkilis was generating some MVP buzz late in the season, particularly after Carlos Quentin’s ridiculous wrist injury broke (get it?) the AL MVP race wide open. But like Morneau, Youkilis’s candidacy suffers from the fact that he may not even be the most valuable member of his team, let alone the league. I love Kevin Youkilis as a player, and I hope that his 2008 season makes a name for him outside of Red Sox and sabermetric circles, but I don’t think he should be the AL MVP. I do, however, think that he is the AL 1B MVP for 2008.

3.) In a year of huge midseason deals, Mark Teixeira is easy to overlook. But the Braves-turned-Angels first baseman had another huge year (and a second consecutive year in which he switched leagues and was therefore excluded from the MVP debate). Teixeira’s combined totals: .308/.410/.552 with 33 HR, an OPS of .962 (OPS+ 151), an EqA of .328, 30 win shares (15 each for Atlanta and Los Angeheim), and VORPs of 37.0 with the Angels and 30.7 with the Braves (9th and 14th, respectively, among full season totals for first basemen).

To put things in perspective, in only 54 games with Anaheim, Teixeira had a higher VORP than Ryan Howard, Carlos Pena, Jason Giambi, Derrek Lee, or NL RoY candidate Joey Votto compiled over the course of the entire season. And Teixeira’s ridiculous season totals aren’t just the result of two torrid months in Southern California; he was already putting together an excellent season (.283/.390/.512 with 20 HR and an OPS+ of 136 in 103 games) in Atlanta before being traded to the Angels at the deadline.

Teixeira may have proven once again that he is one of the premier first basemen in the Major Leagues (if not the flashiest), and his 2008 campaign was nothing short of stellar, but he falls well short of the top spot (in fact, the top two spots) in 2008.

2.) During the first three months of the 2008 season, Lance Berkman hit absolutely everything big league pitchers could throw at him. Through June 30, Berkman was hitting .365/.448/.699 with 22 homers and a 1.147 OPS. He cooled off by midseason, but still put up ridiculous numbers, compiling a .312/.420/.567 line with 29 HR, an OPS of .987 (OPS+ 159), a .333 EqA, 38 win shares, and a VORP of 72.2 for a surprisingly good Astros team.

The case against Berkman at the #2 spot rests firmly on his splits; he was otherworldly for two months, but merely very good for the remaining three. But the same could be said of his closest competition (Mark Teixera at #3), and both Teixera and Berkman put up better season-long numbers, hot streaks or no hot streaks, than the rest of the first base field. But considering the season the next man on this list put together, not even Berkman’s two months as the second coming of Ted Williams could land him the #1 spot.

1.) If you weren’t expecting to see Albert Pujols at the top of this list, you were obviously not watching the same sport as the rest of us were in 2008. Pujols’s numbers were, as usual, absurd—albeit even more so than usual: .357/.462/.653 for a 1.115(!) OPS (190 OPS+) with 37 HR, a .372 EqA, 35 win shares, and an absolutely ridiculous VORP of 96.8.

Put simply, if Pujols doesn’t win his second NL MVP award this year, I think it’s safe to say that the BBWAA has collectively gone mad. Frankly, any first-place vote for a non-Pujols candidate is foolishness (I’m looking at you, Ryan-Howard-and-his-.339-OBP supporters!); Pujols led the majors in a slew of offensive categories, including SLG, OPS, OPS+, total bases (342), intentional walks (34), runs created, EqA, and VORP, and was second in BA, OBP, and win shares. He remained incredibly patient at the plate (a career-high 104 BB) but virtually impossible to strike out (54 SO), particularly for a power hitter.

And to those MVP voters and would-be-voters who privilege postseason berths over numbers, consider this: without Pujols (and, to a lesser extent, Ryan Ludwick), the Cardinals would have been cellar-dwellers in 2008 instead of remaining a Wild Card threat until late in the season. The Cardinals won 86 games this season despite getting only four starts—total!—from Chris Carpenter and Mark Mulder and being forced to replace their former closer, Jason Isringhousen, after watching him go from a lights-out reliever (177 ERA+ and 1.071 WHIP in 2007) to a man who couldn’t buy an out (75 and 1.641 in 2008). They didn’t win with pitching (St. Louis pitchers combined for a roughly league-average OPS+ of 101), and Pujols was easily the most valuable piece of a surprisingly potent St. Louis offense.

There is only one real choice for the most valuable first baseman of 2008. There is only one real choice for the 2008 National League Most Valuable Player. And there is only one real choice for the most valuable player in Major League Baseball in 2008.

That choice is Albert Pujols, ladies and gentlemen. Carlos Pena may have (rightfully) stolen the spotlight at first base in ’07, but make no mistake: Pujols is the finest first baseman (and arguably, the finest player overall) of our generation, and certainly the best across the board in 2008.

2008 Positional MVP Picks: Catchers

This is the second installment in a position-by-position look at the most valuable players of 2008. I had initially intended to analyze relief pitchers second, immediately after their SP counterparts, but decided instead to switch to position players first and to then return to RP's near the end of the series. So welcome to Installment #2: Catchers.

Thanks to Jorge Posada’s shoulder surgery and Victor Martinez’s two+ months on the disabled list, the race for the top catcher in the big leagues looks much different this year than it did last year. Five backstops had solid-to-big years. Of those five, two have legitimate shots at the catching MVP, and in a wide-open AL MVP race, one even has a chance at a league MVP—you know, a real award—as well.

But before I rank the top five, I want to give a quick “Honorable Mention” to Mike Napoli, who would have easily cracked the list this year given more than 78 games under his belt. Based on his ridiculous partial season numbers and obvious talent (he’s put together better and better partial years the past three seasons), don’t be surprised if he makes a splash as soon as he gets 120-140 starts in a season.

Also, I feel I should make a few statistical disclaimers for this and all future posts concerning position players. I don’t care all that much about runs scored, and I care a whole lot less about RBIs. Both totals are too reliant on teammates’ performances to be primary metrics for individual awards (even made up awards like these positional MVPs). I don’t mean to suggest that a lot of runs and/or RBIs can’t be indicative of a good player and/or season, but rather that fewer runs and/or RBIs are not necessarily indicative of a comparatively worse player/season. Similarly, I don’t care about batting average in a vacuum, but coupled with OBP and/or BABIP it can show whether a hitter puts a lot of balls into play or takes a lot of walks (or both), and coupled with SLG can show how many of those hits go for extra bases. The relative unreliability of these metrics when cited, as they too often are, “in a vacuum” (without qualification) is much less of an issue in this installment than it will be at the big RBI positions (1B and corner outfielders), but I felt a blanket qualification was in order nonetheless.

And now, on with the top five catchers of 2008:

5.) Russell Martin regressed from his 2007 numbers, but he still put together a respectable season, particularly for a guy who spent 149 games crouched behind home plate. Martin hit .280/.385/.396 (BA/OBP/SLG) with 13 HR for an OPS of .781 (which translates into an OPS+ of 103), an EqA of .283, 22 total win shares, and a VORP of 33.7. His offensive numbers aren’t overwhelming (his SLG, in fact, is downright underwhelming), but they are above league average, and Martin was good enough defensively at a skill position to remain a valuable catcher in ’08. But the other four players on this list pace or outpace him in nearly every category, which makes Martin a third-tier catching MVP candidate this year.

4.) Ryan Doumit may not be a household name, having played his entire career (brief though it has been) in baseball purgatory (aka Pittsburgh), but in 2008 he showed what he’s capable of doing with more than half a season of playing time. Doumit’s batting line this year was .318/.357/.501 with 15 HR, good for an OPS of .858 (OPS+ 125), a .297 EqA, 22 total win shares, and a VORP of 35.8. He’s probably the weakest fielder on this list, but his bat kept him near the top of the catching heap in 2008 even though it wasn’t nearly enough to make him more than a second-tier candidate.

Like Napoli, though, Doumit didn’t play in as many games (only 116 games, 106 of them behind the plate) as any of the other catchers in my top 5, so we can only guess at the sort of year Doumit can put together given 20-30 more starts. He'll be interesting to watch, particularly if he escapes the anemic offense and small-market exposure in Pittsburgh.

3.) Geovany Soto will probably run away with the NL Rookie of the Year award, and, as a rabid Cubs fan, I’m very excited at the prospect. That said, Joey Votto is another deserving candidate, but Soto should (rightly) beat out the Reds’ first baseman due to his excellent defensive numbers at a skill position (good reasoning) as well as the fact that he played for a big market, division-winning team (bad reasoning).

Soto’s numbers are fantastic for a catcher, and even more impressive considering 2008 was his first full season (and only second overall) in the bigs. He went .285/.364/.504 with 23 HR, an .868 OPS (OPS+ 122), .288 EqA, 24 win shares (including a very impressive 9 fielding win shares), and a VORP of 39.3. He beats out Doumit for third primarily because he played in more games (allowing him to rack up higher quantitative statistics, like HRs) and played better defense in those games. Soto is a borderline first-tier candidate for the catching MVP, but the next two men on this list are simply too far ahead of him in VORP, and either comparable defensively or, in the case of my #2 man, not so much worse that Soto can make up such gaps in VORP (in particular), EqA and, to a lesser extent, OPS+.

2.) Three full seasons into his career, Brian McCann has certainly proven that he can punish a baseball. In 2008, McCann’s numbers included a .301/.373/.523 line, 23 HR, .896 OPS, 136 OPS+, .307 EqA, 21 win shares, and a VORP of 51.6. In fact, if I were only looking at offensive statistics, McCann might even be #1 on this list, though it would still be a pretty close race.

However, once defense is added to the equation, McCann’s overall value drops somewhat. Not by an awful lot, mind you—he’s ahead of the next runner up (Soto) in too many offensive categories (OBP, SLG, XBH [66 to 60], OPS, OPS+, EqA, and, in particular, VORP) for his glove to drop him past the number two slot—but faced with a similarly valuable offensive catcher with superior defensive skills, McCann falls short of the top catching spot in 2008.

1.) Joe Mauer returned to his ’06 form (see: ridiculously, ridiculously good) in 2008, compiling a .328/.413/.451 batting line with 9 HR, an .864 OPS, 134 OPS+, .316 EqA, a league-leading 31 win shares (22 batting and 9.2 fielding), a VORP of 55.5, and a substantial amount of MVP buzz. Mauer’s EqA, total win shares, and VORP were all tops among catchers.

Mauer and McCann are both very different (albeit very good) hitters. McCann hits for more power than Mauer does: he chalked up 66 XBH vs. only 44 for Mauer, who collected 31 doubles and 4 triples to go along with his 9 HR. But Mauer is an OBP machine. He takes a lot of walks (84 in ’08) to add to his characteristically high batting average (he won his second batting title this year) as well as to Justin Morneau’s characteristically high RBI totals. In a final offensive analysis, McCann has the edge in HR, XBH, SLG, OPS, and OPS+, but Mauer leads in hits (176 to 153), BA, OBP, EqA, batting win shares (22 to 16.2), and VORP.

Even in an offensive vacuum, Mauer probably deserves the nod for the top catcher of 2008, but adding his higher fielding win shares (9.2 to 4.9) to the equation widens his advantage over McCann in total win shares to 10 (31 to 21), giving Mauer the edge by a little over three wins. Baserunners were more conservative with Mauer than with McCann, as well, running on the Twins’ catcher only 80 times (and getting caught 29 times) as opposed to 120 times on McCann (who threw out two fewer runners—27—in 40 more chances).

Joe Mauer should not be the AL MVP this year, but he was definitely the most valuable big league catcher in 2008, and an easy choice for the top spot on this list.