Showing posts with label Aramis Ramirez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Aramis Ramirez. Show all posts

Friday, January 1, 2010

Cubs All-Aught Team

Whether you think the decade ended last night or 364ish days from now, the twenty-aughts are over, which means I have a rock-solid excuse to do a bit of reflecting on the decade that was (and very technically still is). This reflection, unsurprisingly, has taken the form of a list, as I found myself wondering what an all-decade team would look like for the North Siders. Here's my attempt at answering that question.

Whenever possible, I tried to err on the side of seniority. In other words, 1-year rentals shouldn't make an All-Aught team in my opinion, because the All-Aught Cubbies aren't just about putting the best team possible on the field. They're also about putting the most representative team on the field. And sometimes, that means Corey Patterson gets to play (the abyss gazes also...).

I may decide to extend the All-Aught analysis to the other teams in the NL Central, though this took me quite some time to compile and, if Caleb and Steve are interested (hint, hint) ,they could certainly claim Milwaukee and St. Louis.

So without further ado...



STARTING LINEUP:



Catcher: Michael Barrett

If Geovany Soto had followed up his 2008 campaign with a similarly impressive 2009, he'd likely have taken this spot. As it stands, Cubs catchers haven't lasted very long in the aughts, and Barrett's 431 games behind the dish are easily the most by any backstop on the decade (Girardi and Soto are neck-and-neck behind Barrett, with 274 and 273 games, respectively). Barrett's defensive reputation wasn't exactly sterling, but he sure got things done with the bat, posting a .284/.343/.484 line with 57 HR, and 98 2B in 3+ years with the Cubs. He also led the Major Leagues with 1 punch to A.J. Pierzynski's face, which shouldn't be underestimated. We'll just make sure to keep him away from Zambrano in the All-Aught dugout.

Other Cubs catchers.



First Base: Derrek Lee

You were expecting someone else? D-Lee absolutely owned the also-rans at first base this decade. He may not get a lot of press (2005 excepted) playing in a division that claims Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, but sweet Lord has Lee ever had a fantastic career in Chicago. In five full seasons (and parts of 2006), Derrek Lee has hit .304/.384/.539 with 163 HR and 218 2B, and he's done it all while playing Gold Glove caliber defense. Just to put things in perspective, his nearest competition, Fred McGriff, trails Lee by over 500 RC and was nowhere near the defensive player D-Lee is.

Other Cubs first basemen.



Second Base: Mark DeRosa

Second base is a three horse race between DeRosa, Eric Young, and Todd Walker. There is no iconic choice at second like there is at first, and there's little seperation between the top candidates like there is at catcher; DeRo, Young, and Walker are all within 3 RC of one another (176, 177, 174, respectively). But Walker had an extra year on the North Side to put up those numbers, which makes me skeptical that he'll really be able to hang with the other two upon more careful analysis.

Dipping into WAR data confirms this: DeRosa was worth 6.4 WAR in his two seasons with the Cubs, Young 4.0 WAR, and Walker only 2.9 across 3 seasons. DeRo, with his .289/.373/.451 line (plus 31 homers and 58 doubles) beats out Young due to slightly better fielding numbers (though neither was a defensive wizard and it's worth noting that DeRosa was all over the diamond at times), and better OBP and SLG skills.

Other Cubs second basemen.



Third Base: Aramis Ramirez

Another easy choice, Ramirez and his .300/.364/.546 line, 188 HR, and 200 2B annihilate the rest of the field (Bill Mueller? Ron Coomer? Willie Greene?). He may be a bit of a statue at third, but his bat more than makes up for his lack of range, making Aramis Ramirez a very, very good baseball player.

Other Cubs third basemen.



Shortstop: Ryan Theriot

The knock against The Riot is that he's a woefully inefficient base stealer and he absolutely does not hit for power (his career SLG is only 13 points higher than his career OBP: 369 vs. .356). But he gets on base and plays adequately at short (some years a bit above replacement, sometimes a bit below). And from a fan perspective, I have to say that he's a hell of a lot of fun to watch, and even more fun to yell silly things like "The Quiet Riot!" at. Bonus.

Other Cubs shortstops.



Left Field: Alfonso Soriano

This one hurts me a little, because I very much want to pencil Moises Alou into the All-Aught lineup. But although Alou was better offensively (mostly because his down year, 2002 was so much better than Soriano's godawful 2009, and his best year, 2004, was crazygonuts), Soriano's defense is much, much better than Alou's ever was. And it's not just Soriano's amazing outfield arm; his range in left is better, and even with the silly little hop, he's better at reeling in balls hit his way. He's also better on the basepaths (no surprise there). Add all those "little" things together and Soriano has a massive 4.9 to 2.5 WAR advantage over Alou despite Moises's superior batting line.

None of this is to say that non-2009 Soriano is a slouch at the plate, of course. Sure, the guy will not take a walk, and sure, right handers with sliders make him look absolutely ridiculous, but Soriano has one very, very valuable tool as a hitter. He hits the ball hard. Really, really hard. The end result? A terrible OBP as a Cub (.328) coupled with a fantastic slugging percentage (.508). Add that to his fielding numbers, and non-2009 Soriano is a very valuable (albeit very overpaid) player.

Other Cubs left fielders.



Center Field: Corey Patterson

The Cubs just couldn't seem to figure out center field in the aughts. Sure, they had solid single season efforts from the likes of Jim Edmonds and Kenny Lofton, but few players lasted longer than a year or two in center. As a result, Corey Patterson and his .252/.293/.414 line make the cut, mostly on the strength of solid 2003-2004 campaigns.

Patterson actually is a pretty good fielder, and was worth 2.8 WAR during his five year tenure with the team. But outside of '03-'04, he never showed an ability to get on base consistently, and the Cubs ultimately gave up on their former top prospect. But he played more (and contributed more) than any other center fielder during the decade, so he gets the nod here.

Other Cubs center fielders.



Right Field: Sammy Sosa

Another ridiculously easy choice, Slammin' Sammy hit .295/.390/.612 (that's a 1.002 OPS!) as a Cub from 2000-2004. In that time, he slugged 238 home runs and 134 doubles. He played an above average right field, with decent range and a cannon of an arm (which actually hurt him, as it was an incredibly inaccurate cannon). His 2001 was one of the greatest single seasons ever by a Cub (along with Rogers Hornsby's 1930 and Hack Wilson's 1929). All in all, he was worth 27.7 WAR for the Cubs during the aughts, and was the face of the franchise until things got silly in '04. Pencil him in.

Other Cubs right fielders.



STARTING ROTATION:



#1 Starter: Carlos Zambrano

Turn back the clock six or seven years and Big Z was overshadowed by the next two pitchers in my All-Aught rotation. But in the end, no Cubs pitcher started (and won) more games, threw more innings, struck out more batters, or was worth more wins than Carlos Zambrano. The ace of the Cubs staff for the past few years emerged as the [f]ace of the rotation on the decade as a whole, throwing 1551.1 innings with 1324 K, 698 BB, and an ERA+ of 127, all good for 28.4 WAR.



#2 Starter: Kerry Wood

Oh, what might have been. After pitching one of the greatest games in history (and there's an argument to be made that it was in fact the greatest pitching performance in history) in '98, Wood started the aughts strong as the Cubs' recently repaired ace. Obviously, things didn't work out the way we all thought they would. But Kerry Wood was still a dominant pitcher for the first half of the decade, and is second only to Zambrano in games started, IP, Ks, and WAR with 152, 1052.2, 1174, and 19.9, respectively. Some of those numbers came in '07 and '08 when Wood worked out of the bullpen, but nevertheless, no All-Aught rotation would be complete without Kerry.



#3 Starter: Mark Prior

Oh, what might have been: round two. Prior followed up his fantastic 2002 rookie campaign with a season for the ages in 2003: 211.1 IP, 245 K, 50 BB, a 1.103 WHIP, and a 178 ERA+. Cubs fans saw the best young rotation in baseball in Prior, Wood, and Zambrano. And then the injury bug hit: Prior pitched well the next two years but missed starts due to nagging injury issues. And then 2006 happened and everything went to hell. The Cubs eventually gave up on Prior, and he's bounced around a bit since, but has never thrown another pitch in a Major League Baseball game. But good Lord was he amazing for the North Siders in those few short non-2006 years, during which he piled up 13.1 WAR (6.2 of those wins in '03 alone).



#4 Starter: Ted Lilly

It's easy to forget Ted Lilly's contributions sometimes because he pitches alongside flashier (see: Big Z) starters. But Lilly has been solid-to-excellent in all three of his years with the Cubs, throwing a total of 588.2 innings with 509 Ks against 155 BBs, a WHIP between 1.06 and 1.23, and an ERA+ of 124, good for 10.4 WAR. I remember thinking that we were overpaying for a mediocre pitcher when the Cubbies picked up Lilly prior to the 2007 season, but he's proven me wrong by pitching far better in Chicago than he ever did in Toronto (or anywhere else, for that matter).



#5 Starter: Jon Lieber

It's also easy to forget that Jon Lieber was a top-of-the-rotation starter for the Cubs in the early aughts and instead remember him as the journeyman long reliever/spot starter who rejoined the club in '09. But from '00-'02, Lieber was a reliable workhorse who didn't strike many batters out but also didn't walk many, and who threw 671 innings (including some relief innings in 2009) with 454 Ks, 113 BBs, a WHIP that hovered between 1.14 and 1.20, and an ERA+ of 107. He was also worth 9.2 WAR, 9.0 of those as a starter. And so as much as the sentimental fan in me would like to give Maddux's Chicago swan song the fifth spot in the rotation, I have to give the nod to Lieber here.

Other Cubs starters.



BULLPEN:



Spot Starter/Long Reliever #1: Ryan Dempster

True, Dempster has been much, much better (and of course, much more valuable) as a starter, but he was also the Cubs closer for a while. He certainly deserves a spot on the All-Aughts team due both to his longevity with the team and value at both ends of the ballgame, but because of the names ahead of him, he'd be a spot starter at best. But it's worth noting that Dempster has contributed 1.5 WAR as a reliever and 8.1 as a starter, so he didn't miss the rotation by much.



Spot Starter/Long Reliever #2: Greg Maddux

Maddux's best years were behind him when he returned to Wrigley in 2004, but his homecoming was still both celebrated and valuable. Maddux was a roughly league-average pitcher by this point in his career, but he was good for 200+ innings per year (he never missed a start) and was every bit the control artist he'd been in Atlanta (only 92 BB in 574 IP with Chicago). He didn't really strike many guys out anymore (only 368 Ks), but his K/BB ratio never dipped below 3.1 (though he gave up his fair share of home runs), and he was worth 6.9 WAR to the Cubs over 2+ seasons..



Middle Reliever #1: Joe Borowski

An All-Aughts team without Borowski would feel so very, very wrong to me. Of course, an All-Aughts team with Borowski as the closer would feel even more wrong. But frankly, the numbers don't match up with my memories. Sure, Borowski's 2004 was horrible beyond words. But I remember Borowski as the master of the "scary save."

We all know a "scary save" when we see one. My favorite was on June 8, 2003, when the Yankees were in town and I'd scored a seat in the first row of the upper deck, just above first base. Borowski took over in the bottom of the ninth with a 3 run lead and promptly struck out Alfonso Soriano before walking Derek Jeter, giving up a double to Giambi, and then a 2-run single to Jorge Posada. Robin Ventura then flew out to right, after which Posada was pulled for the speedier Charles Gipson...who Borowski picked off to win the game as Wrigley went wild. I'll never forget poor Gipson, though; I was directly above the play, celebrating with everyone else while he just lied there, face down, as if he couldn't believe what he'd just done and was hoping that perhaps the infield dirt near first would take pity and swallow him up. It's one of the most poignant baseball memories I have.

But that's the funny thing about memories: it's the really extraordinary happenings that stick with us much of the time, and as such, I remember Borowski as the guy who gave up a leadoff hit, walked a couple guys, maybe let a run or two score, but in the end held on long enough to get the save. And yet, his 198.0 innings, 192/67 K/BB ratio, 113 ERA+, and WHIP that, outside of that abysmal 2004 campaign, never strayed north of 1.18 stare me accusingly in the face these many years later.

Mea culpa, Joe.



Middle Reliever #2/ROOGY: Michael Wuertz

In four seasons with the Cubs, Wuertz and his signature slider saw 262.1 innings of relief work with 270 Ks to 128 BBs, a WHIP that hovered a bit dangerously in the 1.2-1.4 range, but a solid ERA+ of 127. I'm sure I'm not the only Cubs fan who wishes Wuertz's 2009 line of 78.2 IP, 102 K, 23 BB, 166 ERA+, and 0.953 WHIP had helped Chicago rather than Oakland.



Middle Reliever #3/LOOGY: Mike Remlinger

Remlinger pitched 2+ solid years for the Cubs, mostly as a setup man/LOOGY, and he pitched quite well, particularly in 2003 when he struck out 83 batters in only 69 innings. While with the team, he threw 138.2 innings, struck out 148, walked 67, and maintained an ERA+ of 112 and a WHIP that consistently hovered in the 1.3's.



Setup Man: Bobby Howry

228.2 IP. 202 K. 49 BB. 118 ERA+. Sure, his 2008 wasn't pretty, but for two years, Howry was the man in the seventh. On the whole, he sure seems like a good choice to be the man in the eighth.



Closer: Carlos Marmol

Last year wasn't pretty. But Marmol was the man in '06 and '07, and has thrown 307.2 innings for the Cubs with 362 K, 200 BB, a 134 ERA+, and a WHIP of 1.284. He walks too many guys, sure. But when the league hits .181 against you, you can afford an extra BB or three. The fact is, Marmol's slider feeds on human suffering, and I have every confidence that he'll bounce back next year. Maybe I'm too high on Marmol. Maybe I'm letting his recent success ('06-'07) blind me while blinding myself to his recent lack of success ('08). But when I think about Cubs bullpen aces of the aughts, the first name that comes to mind is Carlos Marmol.



BENCH:

Backup Catcher: Geovany Soto (.264/.348/.461, 3.9 WAR)
Outfield/DH (interleague play): Moises Alou (.283/.353/.484, 2.5 WAR)
Infield/Pinch Runner: Eric Young (.288/.351/.396, 4.0 WAR)
Utility Infielder: Todd Walker (.286/.353/.487, 2.9 WAR)

And rounding things off (though not part of the official roster):

Enforcer/Historian: Kyle Farnsworth (348.2 IP, 397 K, 172 BB, 92 ERA+, 2 confirmed kills)



Obviously, there are some potential snubs. I'd love to find a spot for Fred McGriff and Mike Fontenot. Mark Guthrie and Will Ohman should probably be in the bullpen, but I'm still scarred from the 2003 playoffs. Even still, the All-Aughts opening day lineup would look something like this:

1.) 2B Mark DeRosa
2.) 1B Derrek Lee
3.) 3B Aramis Ramirez
4.) RF Sammy Sosa
5.) C Michael Barrett
6.) LF Alfonso Soriano
7.) SS Ryan Theriot
8.) CF Corey Patterson
9.) SP Carlos Zambrano

Not too shabby.

And now, cheers to 2010. "Next year" has arrived once more (though not yet for baseball fans). Perhaps the twenty-teens will finally bring us Next Year.

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

100%

The season is now over and we can look back at the years various players had and evaluate how well they did. Remember this post? Well now we get to see how accurate it is to predict things less than one-fifth of the way through the season.

C - Yadier Molina
.293/.366/.383, .273 EqA, 6.3 WAR

1B - Albert Pujols
.327/.443/.658, .362 EqA, 12.2 WAR

2B - Felipe Lopez*
.320/.407/.448, .304 EqA, 2.4 WAR
*MIL numbers; Brandon Phillips had a higher WAR (3.0) but Lopez did this in only 66 G in Milwaukee, adding in his ARI stats would lower his rate stats but increase his WAR total

SS- Miguel Tejada
.313/.340/.455, .279 EqA, 5.3 WAR

3B - Andy LaRoche
.258/.330/.401, .260 EqA, 2.7 WAR

OF - Andrew McCutchen
.286/.365/.471, .297 EqA, 5.5 WAR

OF - Ryan Braun
.320/.386/.551, .323 EqA, 6.9 WAR

OF - Mike Cameron
.250/.342/.452, .281 EqA, 5.0 WAR

P - Chris Carpenter
192.2 IP, 1.01 WHIP, 0.33 HR/9, 6.73 K/9

Notes: 3B was a tough one. LaRoche won it out on strong defense and a full season. Ramirez had much better offensive rates but played a half a season due to injury and below average defense.

In the outfield Michael Bourn was close with a higher WAR than Cameron but they both play great defense and Cameron has way more power.

Overall among the ten positions four stayed the same (or 40%). More than the 19.1% of the season played the previous go around but it shows that one-fifth of a season is not a reliable indicator of the season as a whole.

Thursday, June 25, 2009

Balloteering for positions.

Wondering who in the NL Central deserves a spot in the All-Star Game? I kind of was, so I wrote an article about it.

Really I was looking at who could reasonably be argued as one of the top two at a given position in the National League. I focused mainly on WAR, OPS+, and EqA. Here are the choices by team:

Chicago Cubs: None.
Fukudome comes close but he's tied for 8th among OF for WAR and his EqA is only .279. Ramirez would be up there but he actually tried to show some range in the field and his shoulder rebelled against this idea.

Cincinnati Reds: None.
Poor Joey Votto. He's having a great year but trails Pujols, Gonzalez, and Fielder in most categories. Brandon Phillips is having a good year as well but Utley and Sanchez edge him out. Ryan Hannigan is having a good year at the plate but is not as good offensively as McCann or defensively as Molina and they both lead him out in WAR.

Houston Astros: Hunter Pence
Pence is surprising me and I'll eat my words if he maintains this through the end of the season (BABIP .355 so far). Michael Bourn is tied with Fukudome at 8th for OF WAR and is having a slightly better year at the plate. I would be surprised if it is enough. I wouldn't be surprised if Rodriguez gets elected in what is expected to be his last year.

Milwaukee Brewers: Ryan Braun, Mike Cameron
Braun is developing into a true superstar which has me excited and nervous. There are stories about his marketability being targeted by all kinds of people and this makes it harder for me to envision him remaining in Milwaukee. Cameron started the year crushing at the plate and although he has cooled off his work in the field has been outstanding (20 FRAR, 9 FRAA). Fielder is trailing only Gonzalez and Pujols but it might be enough to keep him out.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Freddy Sanchez
Sanchez is having an excellent year at the plate and in the field and trails only Chase Utley among second basemen for WAR. Watch for him at the trade deadline as his contract ends with a club option for next year that the Pirates may not want to spend. This may be good for Freddy as the Pirates are terrible.

St Louis Cardinals: Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina
Pujols just barely edges out just kidding he is destoying everything. Yadier's decent year at the plate combined with his always awesome defense keeps him in the top two C for WAR.

EDIT: I realized as I finished writing that I ignored injuries. I know Beltran and Ibanez both may not play the game if elected which could open up windows for Fukudome or Bourn. I don't feel like going back and checking each leaderboard for injured players so my lists assume the game is being played in an XBox and injures are set to "only Aramis Ramirez."

Monday, May 11, 2009

0.191

We are about a month into the season but already I'm hearing stories about how the wheels have fallen off a certain wagon or a certain surprise contender is showing the grit and hustle of a championship team. This is stupid nonsense spouted by stupid people. Less than one-fifth of the season has been played.

That being said, I thought it might be fun to go through the NL Central and pick the top players so far and contrast it with the end of the season.

C - Yadier Molina
.317/.386/.465, .294 EqA, 1.5 WARP

1B - Albert Pujols
.330/.443/.696, .364 EqA, 2.3 WARP

2B - Freddy Sanchez
.317/.353/.533, .305 EqA, 1.3 WARP

SS - Ryan Theriot
.299/.366/.444, .278 EqA, 0.8 WARP

3B - Aramis Ramirez
.364/.417/.591, .328 EqA, 0.9 WARP

OF - Mike Cameron
.295/.395/.571, .324 EqA, 2.1 WARP

OF - Ryan Braun
.345/.463/.627, .353 EqA, 1.9 WARP

OF - Kosuke Fukudome
.319/.449/.543, .320 EqA, 1.6 WARP

P - Johnny Cueto
39.2 IP, 1.034 WHIP, 0.5 HR/9, 7.3 K/9

Notes:
-There are a lot of quality first basemen in the NL Central. Joey Votto is crushing balls right now just not at a Pujolsian rate.
-Pitcher was the hardest category to decide on. Wandy Rodriguez is having a great year as is Yovani Gallardo. I gave Cueto the benefit of the doubt for having a better WHIP even though he has one fewer start. We'll see what happens.



Saturday, November 8, 2008

2008 Positional MVP Picks: Third Basemen

The corners of the diamond tend to be where the top hitters lurk, and the hot corner was no exception to this rule in 2008. Although I found that narrowing down the third basemen list to seven names was as simple, if not simpler, than the process was for second basemen, determining actual rankings once I was down to seven finalists was extremely difficult. But difficult or no, I plugged away at the numbers until I was satisfied with my rankings and ready to bring you Installment #5: Third Basemen.

In 2008, there were basically three classes of third basemen: the top three, numbers four through seven, and everyone else. But I’ve tried to keep my positional MVP picks at five players, which meant two players had to be dropped from the short list.

The second honorable mention (7th place) was easy enough: Jorge Cantu, despite being a solid hitter (.277/.327/.481 with 29 HR for an OPS+ of 110), was a terrible fielder in ’08 (16th among twenty qualified ML third basemen in range factor [RF] at 2.51, dead last in zone rating [ZR] at .720, and 18th in revised zone rating [RZR] at .662). True, at least two of the third basemen who made the top five are below-average to terrible fielders, but they are also vastly superior hitters to Cantu.

The first honorable mention was much more difficult to determine. Troy Glaus had an outstanding season in his new St. Louis uniform, putting together a line of .270/.372/.483 with 27 homers and an OPS of .855 (OPS+ 124), and his VORP of 35.2 actually led my pick for #5 by .4 runs (though Glaus was nearly ten runs behind 4th place). But Glaus wasn’t as good with his glove as the first man on my list, and so will have to settle for an honorable mention.

As for the players who made the list, I’m actually very confident in my #1 pick, but there are legitimate arguments, with which I will engage later, against both #1 and #2 being ranked as high as they are. #2 and #3 were almost too close to call, #4 was all alone (he has no business being rated either higher or lower than fourth), and #5 is hanging on to his spot by the skin of his teeth (or, perhaps more appropriately, by the leather of his glove).

So without further qualification, I present the top five MLB third basemen of 2008:

5.) Evan Longoria started the year in the minors, landed on the DL with a broken wrist, and only played in 122 games, but still managed to put together an excellent season. Longoria’s first-year resume includes a batting line of .272/.343/.531, an OPS of .874 (OPS+ 125), 27 HR, .302 EqA, 20 total win shares (including 4.8 fielding win shares, higher than any other Major League third baseman), and a VORP of 34.8. Among qualifyied third basemen, he tied for sixth in the majors with a 2.72 RF, was seventh with a .797 ZR, and fourth with a .731 RZR.

Longoria should be the runaway winner of the American League Rookie of the Year award, particularly since he was such an important part of the Rays’ division title (and end-of-season award voters love playoff berths!). And although I think playoff berths are overrated with regards to individual awards (and am glad that, traditionally, the RotY has been much less linked to pennants than the MVP has), I use the word “should” with regards to Longoria’s expected RotY for two reasons: one, because I’m fairly certain that he will win the award, and two, because I believe he deserves it.

Longoria’s partial season was not strong enough for him to make it any higher than fifth on this list, but he is only 23 years old; give him another (hopefully full) season or two in the bigs, and he’ll be significantly higher on the short list of premier third basemen.

4.) Aramis Ramirez may be a statue at third, but my God can he ever crush a ball, and now that he’s taking more walks, Ramirez has become even more dangerous at the plate. Aramis’s 2008 stats include a batting line of .289/.380/.518, an OPS of .898 (OPS+ 128), 27 HR, a .297 EqA, 25 total win shares, and a VORP of 44.7 (solidly ahead of Glaus and Longoria, but nowhere near the top three).

Defensively, Ramirez is significantly worse at third than Longoria. His 2.16 RF was easily the lowest among qualified third basemen, and his .751 ZR and .659 RZR were 17th and 19th, respectively. But because offense is so much more important than defense, particularly at the corners, Ramirez gets the nod at #4.

There is no reason in heaven or on earth, by the way, that Aramis Ramirez should have won the NL Hank Aaron Award (see my previous post for a more detailed explanation), nor is there any reason for him to move into the top three on this list. But there is also no reason why Ramirez should be anything lower than #4.

3.) David Wright regressed slightly from his 2007 numbers, but still put together a monster year in ’08. Wright hit .302/.390/.534 with 33 HR for an OPS of .924 (OPS+ 141), an EqA of .319, 29 total win shares (tops among third basemen), and a VORP of 66.2.

And unlike Ramirez, Wright is a good fielder. Although his RF of 2.51 and ZR of .765 (both 15th among qualified third basemen) are hardly impressive, his RZR of .714 was good for 6th in the majors (and second only to Longoria among third basemen on this list).

Had Wright put up his 2007 numbers this year, he would easily have overtaken the next man on my list. Even in 2008, one could argue that Wright is worthy of the #2 spot. But in my estimation, Wright falls just short of the top two this year.

2.) Alex Rodriguez was once again the most valuable American League third baseman in 2008, though this year he’ll have to settle for second place on the overall list. Rodriguez had a bit of a down year in ’08 (which, in mere mortal terms, means “an amazing year”) thanks to a stint on the DL that limited him to 138 games, but his numbers were still obscene: .302/.392/.573 with 35 HR, a .965 OPS (OPS+ 150), .323 EqA, 25 total win shares, and a VORP of 65.6.

A-Rod was respectable in the field, beating out Wright with a 2.59 RF and .786 ZR, but lagging behind the Mets third baseman with a .703 RZR. Of course, defense is not and has never been the reason that Rodriguez is one of the most valuable players in all of baseball, let alone at his own position.

Which brings me to a topic that, surprisingly, I haven’t seen many writers address: Alex Rodriguez is a legitimate MVP candidate. In a year in which the Yankees were devastated by injuries to catcher Jorge Posada, pitcher Chien-Ming Wang, and outfielder Hideki Matsui, and disappointed by serious regressions from their young talent (Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera) as well as their veterans (Derek Jeter), A-Rod led the American League in VORP and SLG, was second in EqA and OPS (and OPS+), third in HR, and top five in a slew of other offensive categories, all while keeping the Yankees competitive in arguably the toughest division in baseball (it’s easy to forget that the Yankees would have won the AL Central or the NL West, and been only one game out in the NL Wild Card despite playing so many games against the Rays, Red Sox, and Blue Jays). In fact, if I had a vote, I’d almost certainly cast it for A-Rod this year.

As for this list, the A-Rod vs. Wright debate comes down to qualitative vs. quantitative statistics. Wright played in 160 games; A-rod played in 138. Wright’s countable statistics (VORP and win shares, for example—though notably, not HR) were higher than Rodriguez’s in 2008. But A-Rod’s averages (EqA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and OPS+) were all higher than Wright’s.

I chose to go with qualitative statistics, but the choice is certainly arguable, particularly within an MVP-type context; after all, one might argue, isn’t the player who plays more games, even at a lower level, likely to be more valuable to a team? The answer is almost certainly “yes,” and A-Rod’s and Wright’s VORPs support such an answer. But because Wright was unable to convincingly pull away from A-Rod despite 22 extra games (Wright’s VORP was only .6 runs higher than Rodriguez’s), I went with the better player over fewer games.

1.) Yes, he cooled off after the All-Star break. Yes, he played in only 128 games due to a lingering thigh injury. But Chipper Jones was the most valuable third baseman in the Major Leagues in 2008. The Braves third baseman hit .364/.470(tops in the majors)/.574 for an OPS of 1.144 (OPS+ 174) with 22 HR, a .362 EqA (second only to Pujols), 24 total win shares, and a VORP of 75.4 (easily tops at third base, and third overall in the majors).

Jones isn’t a terrible fielder (his 2.73 RF and .820 ZR were fifth and second in the majors, respectively, though his .695 RZR—14th among qualified third basemen—tells a different story), but with the year he had at the plate in 2008, he could have trotted to the hot corner with a cinderblock strapped to his left hand and still been a fantastic everyday third baseman.

Like with A-Rod, the fact that Jones didn’t play everyday is really the only strong argument against him at #1. But whereas such an argument could potentially unseat Rodriguez from the #2 spot, it doesn’t work as well against Jones. Jones outperformed Wright so dramatically in qualitative statistics like EqA (.362 to .319), BA/OBP/SLG (.364/.470/.574 to .302/.390/.534), and OPS+ (174 to 141), as well as in arguably the best quantitative offensive statistic for comparisons of players within the same year/league/position (VORP, 75.4 to 66.2) despite playing in 32 (!) fewer games, that losing out to Wright in home runs (22 to 33) and total win shares (24 to 29) does little to refute Jones’s claim to the #1 spot.

Chipper Jones won’t sniff the NL MVP award (Pujols or, God forbid, Ryan Howard has that trophy locked down), but despite playing in only 128 games, he was far and away the best (and most valuable) third baseman of 2008.

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Baseball Fans Prove They Know Nothing About Baseball

According to MLB.com, "[t]he Hank Aaron Award officially recognizes the most outstanding offensive performer in the American and National Leagues." The award is unique in that it is the only major end-of-season award that is voted on by the fans, which makes the Hank Aaron Award perhaps the most accurate barometer for just how bad the nation as a whole is at evaluating "the most outstanding offensive performer" in a given year.

Case in point: this year's NL Hank Aaron Award winner was Aramis Ramirez.

Now don't get me wrong; Aramis Ramirez is a tremendous offensive third baseman, and as a rabid Cubs fan, I've watched the man completely obliterate an awful lot of baseballs over the last five years. But in 2008, Ramirez wasn't even the most outstanding offensive performer in the National League at his own position; Chipper Jones and David Wright both had better offensive years at the hot corner than Ramirez did (the three posted VORPs of 75.4, 66.2, and 44.7, respectively). And neither Jones nor Wright were in the same league as Albert Pujols in 2008.

To illustrate the absurdity of any offensive award being given to Ramirez instead of Pujols this year, let's compare some numbers:

VORP
Pujols: 96.8
Ramirez: 44.7

EqA
Pujols: .372
Ramirez: .297

Batting Win Shares
Pujols: 33.0
Ramirez: 21.0

OBP
Pujols: .462
Ramirez: .380

SLG
Pujols: .653
Ramirez: .518

OPS
Pujols: 1.115
Ramirez: .898

OPS+
Pujols: 190
Ramirez: 128

HR
Pujols: 37
Ramirez: 27

H
Pujols: 187
Ramirez: 160

XBH
Pujols: 81
Ramirez: 72

TB
Pujols: 342
Ramirez: 287

BB
Pujols: 104
Ramirez: 74

SO
Pujols: 54
Ramirez: 94

And just for funsies, here are some numbers that don't even matter all that much:

BA
Pujols: .357
Ramirez: .289

RBI
Pujols: 116
Ramirez: 111

R
Pujols: 100
Ramirez: 97

The only—only—offensive categories in which Ramirez outperformed Pujols in 2008 were triples (Ramirez 1, Pujols 0) and GIDP (Ramirez 13, Pujols 16). Pujols even stole more bases than Ramirez (7 to 2), and at a higher success rate (70% to 50%), and collected two more SF (8 to 6) than the Cubs third baseman.

These are not comparable seasons. Ramirez had a very good year. Pujols had a monster year by every metric ever invented to gauge the monstrousness of years.

Congratulations, voters, for finding a way to fuck this up.