Rick Ankiel's journey from unpredictable pitcher to power outfielder is an interesting one but it has been told many times and is not the purpose of this post. His numbers since becoming an outfielder are and here we go.
Rick's numbers so far have been very good. A good showing in 2007 (.285/.328/.535 in only 47 games) got him a slot in 2008 where he posted a .264/.337/.506 line, good for an EqA of .287. He has been solid but not outstanding in center field with a rate of 92 in 2008. Ankiel appears to be a good player who will continue to produce for years to come.
The concern, however, seems to lie in his ability to take walks and be selective. Ankiel took 3.83 pitches per plate appearance in 2008, tying him with teammate Albert Pujols. Ankiel walked 9.2% of the time while Pujols walked 16.6% of the time. Ankiel should learn to be more selective at the plate.
Is it unreasonable to compare Ankiel to Pujols? Of course. Pitchers are much less likely to throw hittable pitches to Pujols than Ankiel so Pujols should walk more. 3.83 P/PA is also similar to Ryan Ludwick (3.84) and Paul Konerko (3.82), two hitters I would consider to be more comprable to Ankiel. Ludwick drew a walk 10.3% of the time and Konerko 12.9%. I think it would be reasonable to hope for Ankiel to raise his BB% a little and be more selective but it is not dangerously low.
Ankiel should remain a solid fielder with good power. Most projections predict him to post about a .260/.320/.490. Those are solid numbers but certainly not elite. The reason I included Ankiel as part of this series is because I think this season will be very telling for his future. He has now had a full season to adjust to his position and needs to start developing if he will continue to find success at the major league level. If he can get on base at a higher rate while keeping his power numbers strong, then I believe he will flourish. If not, then I think he will find that as he ages and his power numbers drop his inability to get on base at a greater rate will start to be a greater problem. I would set the bar at a 10% walk rate and a .500 SLG. If Ankiel can meet those numbers that I would say he has a good chance of continued performance above a major league level. If not, he may want to turn himself into a gold glove shortstop or find a different career. Perhaps the film industry would suit him.
